Africa 1900-2025:
the rise & fall of world religions
by Justin D. Long
| 1900 | 1925 | 1950 | 1975 | 2000 | 2025 | |
| Christian | 9.21% | 15.11% | 24.79% | 40.68% | 46.59% | 51.03% |
| Muslim | 31.98% | 34.53% | 37.29% | 40.26% | 40.43% | 39.23% |
| Ethnic | 58.14% | 39.55% | 26.90% | 18.30% | 11.57% | 8.08% |
| Other | 0.65% | 0.66% | 0.68% | 0.69% | 1.35% | 1.58% |
| Nonreligious | 0.01% | 0.03% | 0.06% | 0.16% | 0.65% | 0.80% |
| Hindu | 0.25% | 0.26% | 0.26% | 0.27% | 0.31% | 0.31% |
Now we begin a series of 6 Reality Checks which will examine the growth and/or decline in major religions in each of the world's continental areas: Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America, Northern America and Oceania. (This series is mirrored in the AD 2025 Global Monitor, where we also give graphs).
In this, the first installment, we examine the world religious climate of Africa. Major religions here have seen startling "reversals of fortune" over the past century, but few major changes in today's trends are anticipated over the next generation.
First, note the meteoric rise of Christianity in Africa--from just 9.2% in 1900 to its projected 46.5% in AD2000. Keep in mind that although many of Africa's +countries+ are in World C (majority affiliated with a church), the +continent+ as a whole is still in World B (evangelized non-Christian). However, it is likely that it will tip in to World C (just barely) by AD 2025.
The most dramatic growth in the Christian church occurred in the period from 1925-1975, largely as a result of the massive revivals and church growth of the African Independent Churches. In this period, Christians in Africa more than doubled their share of African population, rising from 15% to more than 40% today. Growth, though continuing, has leveled off. Another factor to bear in mind is the huge population growth rate in Africa--which has added many new babies to the African church.
Islam started with far more than Christianity. However, during the last century, it posted gains that, although less dramatic, were steady and sure. The growth now seems to have leveled off and entered a period of decline. Though Muslims in 1975 counted 40% of Africa's citizens as adherents (virtually the same as Christianity) from 1975 to 2000 the Christian church continued to increase markedly while Islam just held steady, and from 2000-2025 it is likely the church will continue its growth while Islam begins to decline, finally dipping below the 40% mark.
Whatever the outcome for these two major religions, while they are on the increase others are on the decrease. Their growth has come mainly at the expense of ethnic religions. These have seen a marked dramatic decline from their high of nearly 60% at the start of the century to their present low of 11%. They will likely continue to decline, perhaps reaching as low as 8% by 2025. Although superstition and animistic practices continue to be rampant in Africa, causing problems for discipleship in both Christianity and Islam, the number of those who adhere solely to these beliefs is definitely on the decline, and it is doubtful that ethnic religions will ever regain anything more than a minority position.
While these tremendous changes have taken place in the overall religious makeup of Africa, the "other" category--comprised mainly of the nonreligious and Hindus--has been making minor gains. Although the nonreligious jumped from 0.1% to 0.6% in the 25-year period from 1975 to 2000, this growth has tapered off and is unlikely to top 1% by 2025. Likewise, Hindus will probably hold steady at 0.3%. Jews have declined from 0.3% at the turn of the century to less than 0.1% now.
The African church shows its vibrancy in its remarkable rate of growth. Few countries in Sub-Saharan Africa can be generally termed "pioneer mission fields," although there are still many strategic targets to be addressed. Now, the chief needs of the African church are leadership training, missionary mobilization, and a strategic emphasis on the north. There remain some hotly contested areas, particularly in the Sahel. Nigeria, Ghana and Sudan are all countries where Islam and Christianity vie for converts. That struggle sees no signs of being over any time soon.
