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Megatrend 1: Southward shift of Christianity
by Justin D. Long
| Region | 1900 | 1925 | 1950 | 1975 | 2000 | 2025 | Notes |
| Africa | 1.7% | 3.2% | 5.9% | 10.2% | 17.9% | 25.9% | Major increase |
| Asia | 3.7% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 17.1% | 20.1% | Moderate increase |
| Europe | 70.7% | 62.4% | 52.9% | 42.6% | 27.9% | 19.8% | Major decline |
| Latin America | 11.5% | 15.2% | 19.2% | 23.2% | 25.0% | 23.9% | Increase begins to decline |
| North America | 11.4% | 13.1% | 14.3% | 15.0% | 11.0% | 9.3% | |
| Oceania | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.9% |
Perhaps one of the most silent and yet startling forces in Christian mission today is the "marginalization" of the Western missionary. Christianity is exploding in virulent forms all over the globe, but most particularly in Africa, Asia and Latin America. In tomorrow's world, more than three quarters of living Christians will reside in one of these regions.
Part of this reflects the success of Western mission efforts. Another part is demographic. While Europe stabilizes its population, and Asia strives to do so, Africa's population growth runs unchecked. High birth rates affect Christian and non-Christian families alike.
Another aspect is the decline in Christianity in certain regions. Europe's Christians as a % of the world total is hit doubly by stabilization of population and a decline in Christianity overall (from 368 million in 1900 to 526 million in 1996, but declining to 512 million by 2025).
However, the point is not the cause, but the effect. In tomorrow's world, the Western missionary--though no doubt still present--will be vastly outnumbered by his Third-World counterpart. Many of these will be doing the job far more effectively and cheaply than Western missionaries due simply to the fact that they have fewer cultural barriers to cross, understand the geography, politics and economics of their area better, and their ministries cost less.
Does this mean the days of the Western missionary are numbered? Should we call all the workers home and "just send money"? We don't think so. But should we ignore this vast force of Christianity? Definitely not.
The answer, as always, lies somewhere in between the two extremes. Westerners excel at the adaptation of technology to missionary endeavors, Westerners have far more financial and logistical resources, and Westerners are very good at training--even though in some instances their training material leaves a bit to be desired. The West, with its enormous resources for world mission, will always have a place in God's effort for global evangelization. This makes sense: why would God tell one part of the world it has done its job and needs not and should not commit any more workers to the field?
On the other hand, Africans, Asians and Latins have a unique role to play in the next century. In many ways, the final frontier is their back yard. And let's remember the Scriptural principle: "To whom much is given, much is required." The largest manpower resource in the world will be placed in the hands of the Third World--and so the largest commitment of manpower to world mission ought to be encouraged.
Westerners must begin immediately to plan and implement partnerships and relationships with Third-World agencies and missionaries of all kind.