WaterWorld or WaterWars?
by Justin D. Long

Globally, water use has tripled since 1950. Now a new problem is rising, perhaps more disturbing than grain shortages. It affects World A countries, provinces and peoples most profoundly. Here are a few case examples:

• Even though the USA granted Mexico a (very controversial) loan of $20 billion to shore up its economy, America denied its southern neighbor a loan of 2.8 million cubic meters of water. The reason: such a loan might deny Texas the water it needed for its own residents.
• In the Arabian peninsula, groundwater use is three times its recharge rate; exploitable reserves may be exhausted within 50 years. Less than 1,000 cubic meters of water per capita is available each year; about 55% of the population suffers from serious water scarcity.
• Vast underground reserves in the African Sahara are being depleted at 10 billion cubic meters per year, and cannot be replaced.
• Water levels are falling in the Indian states of Punjab and Haryana, which provide most of India's grain. Similar drops are being experienced in northern China and southeast Asia.
• Israel predicts 20% of its coastal wells may have to be closed within just a few years.
• The Aral Sea is one of the world's great environmental tragedies, and has caused tremendous economic damage due to lost fisheries, salt damage to crops, and loss of drinking water.

As noted in earlier Reality-Checks, many are facing a desperate need for water. 1.3 billion people do not have safe water to drink. 2.2 billion lack adequate safe water supplies. 3 billion have unsafe water and bad sanitation. 25,000 are killed DAILY by dirty water.

And, of course, falling water supplies means less water for grain and animals--further exacerbating hunger worldwide. Droughts in the United States have caused widespread grain shortages at a time when grain is desperately needed overseas.

The future impact of water shortages is grim, as the following case studies illustrate:

• Israel stictly limited Arab access to groundwater in the West Bank; this was part of the peace negotiations.
• Violence erupted between Senegal and Mauritania over the Manantali Dam. River basins are projected to be flashpoints at places where rivers are shared by two countries: for example, the Ganges, the Nile, the Jordan and the Tigris-Euphrates.
• Several countries are dependent on "foreign water": Turkmenistan, Egypt, Hungary, Mauritania, Botswana, Bulgaria and Uzbekistan all have over 90% of their water originating outside their borders. Should one country decide to decrease the amount of water going to another country--either due to their own increasing internal needs, or as a political ploy--the maneuver could spark a war. One illustration of this was Syrian attempts to divert the Banias, one of three sources of the Jordan River, which caused rising tensions with Israel immediately before the Six-Day War in 1967. In its victory, Israel gained control over two areas of strategic importance: the West Bank aquifer and the Golan Heights, where the Banias feeds into the Jordan. Another illustration is Egypt, which would go to war with either of its neighbors, Sudan or Ethiopia, to prevent either from reducing in any way the flow of the Nile. Unfortunately, now Ethiopia has plans to use water from the Nile for storage and irrigation to improve its own agricultural lot.
• The five countries of Central Asia share the Amu Dar'ya and Syr Dar'ya with Iran and Afghanistan. Their problem: there is not enough water in these basins to meet the needs of all the countries. The problem is exacerbated by the fall of the Aral Sea.
• Syria and Iraq are facing rising tensions with Turkey over the Tigris and Euphrates rivers.

The world will continue to face an acute imbalance between those who possess water, and those who do not. Water, however, is a critical human need--unlike computers and cars--that nations will go to war over. Those who are able to bring water (and thus the ability to live) to a region where water supplies are doubtful will be found to be very valuable.

Suggestions

1. Developing a ministry of well-digging would be very valuable, especially to nomadic peoples whose flocks depend on water. Today, just as in the Old Testament, wells are congregating points where it might be possible to proclaim the Gospel.
2. Medical ministries might examine a ministry of prevention: cleaning dirty water, educating Third-World nationals on how to clean water, and examining the possibility of installing filtration systems.
3. In the next century, tentmakers will find a viable business in the water industry, particularly in the Middle East, Asia and Northern Africa.
4. The need for water--and the impact of not having it--will ripple throughout the whole of life. Expect and prepare plans for responding to water-oriented disasters: diseases spread by dirty water, wars sparked by a lack of water, and emergency requirements for water (incl. firefighting).